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Hold tight to your free weights — the Ozempic revolution is coming to a gym near you.
紧紧抓住你的哑铃——奥泽匹克(Ozempic)革命即将来到你附近的健身房。
The runaway success of “GLP-1” weight loss and diabetes drugs, which also include Wegovy and Zepbound, is hard to overstate. Sales are expected to approach $50bn this year, making them the top-selling class of drugs worldwide. That is despite global shortages, high prices and the fact that the drugs are largely available only in injectable form so far. Sales are expected to more than double to $130bn by 2030 and could soar higher if the makers win permission to sell them as a preventive tool.
包括威哥维(Wegovy)和泽普宝(Zepbound)在内的“GLP-1”类减肥和糖尿病药物取得的巨大成功，简直难以用言语形容。预计今年的销售额将接近500亿美元，使其成为全球最畅销的药物类别。尽管存在全球供应短缺、价格高昂，以及这些药物目前大多只能以注射形式提供的情况，销售额预计到2030年将翻倍至1300亿美元。如果生产商获得批准，将这些药物用于预防用途，销售额可能会进一步飙升。
For pharma groups Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, soon to be joined by others, this is fabulous news. For others, it is likely to be really bad. Diet company WeightWatchers recently changed chief executives as it struggles to adjust, and soft drink, beer and snack company shares have been on a wild ride as investors try to figure out who will be hurt the most when consumers taking the drugs eat healthier food and fewer calories overall.
对于诺和诺德(Novo Nordisk)和礼来(Eli Lilly)等制药集团来说，这是个好消息。对于其他公司来说，可能是个坏消息。减肥公司WeightWatchers最近更换了首席执行官，因为他们很难调整，而软饮料、啤酒和零食公司的股票一直在起伏不定，投资者试图弄清楚，当服用这些药物的消费者开始吃更健康的食物并减少总体热量摄入时，谁会受到最大的伤害。
For gyms and health clubs, the impact is going to be huge but complicated for an industry that is still rebuilding after Covid. The pandemic put a quarter of US fitness centres out of business and reshaped commuting and exercise patterns. Weight-loss drugs are likely to supercharge a consumer rush towards strength training equipment that has been gaining force for more than a decade, and many gyms are still ill-prepared.
对于健身房和健身俱乐部来说，影响将是巨大的，但对于这个在新冠疫情后仍在重建的行业来说，情况将变得复杂。疫情导致了美国四分之一的健身中心倒闭，并重塑了通勤和锻炼模式。减肥药物很可能会加速消费者对力量训练设备的追捧，这种趋势已经持续了十多年，而许多健身房仍然准备不足。
Ten years ago, most health club floors were seas of treadmills, elliptical machines and stationary bikes, with fixed weight machines along the edges along with a free weight area geared towards power lifting, mostly by men. But the pandemic and concurrent rise of apps and YouTube videos that gave people access to personalised fitness routines has made that configuration all but obsolete.
十年前，大多数健身俱乐部的地板上都是跑步机、椭圆机和固定自行车，边缘还有固定重量的器械，以及一个主要面向男性的自由重量区域。但是，疫情和同时兴起的应用程序和YouTube视频使得这种配置几乎过时了。
Customers still use treadmills but both sexes now seek out a wider range of strength training equipment, including barbells, dumbbells, medicine balls and the like. Clubs, seeking to boost membership, have also leaned into the social aspects of in-person fitness, from group classes and personal trainers to cafés and hang-out areas.
顾客们仍然使用跑步机，但现在男女顾客都在寻求更广泛的力量训练设备，包括杠铃、哑铃、药球等。为了增加会员数量，健身俱乐部还加强了面对面健身的社交方面，从团体课程和私人教练到咖啡厅和休息区。
Gyms are pushing their stair climbers and fixed weight machines to the periphery and replacing them with open space for body-sculpting classes, free weights and individual training sessions.
健身房正在将爬楼梯机和固定重量器械推向边缘，取而代之的是用于塑身课程、自由重量和个人训练的开放空间。
“We’re seeing a greater demand for space for strength,” Colleen Keating, CEO of Planet Fitness, one of the largest listed gym groups, told analysts in August. Even Peloton, famous for its cardio-intensive bikes, is testing an app focused on strength training.
“我们看到对于力量训练的需求越来越大，”最大的上市健身集团之一行星健身(Planet Fitness)的首席执行官科琳•基廷(Colleen Keating)在8月份告诉分析师们。就连以有氧训练自行车而闻名的派乐腾(Peloton)也在测试一款专注于力量训练的应用程序。
The shift takes time and money. The now less-popular cardio machines are often sold on multiyear leases, while strength training equipment generally requires an upfront investment. The delay is leading to uneven usage and customer complaints at clubs that have not made the shift.
这种转变需要时间和金钱。现在不太受欢迎的有氧运动器械通常以多年租赁的方式出售，而力量训练设备通常需要前期投资。这种延迟导致了使用率的不均衡，并引起了尚未做出转变的俱乐部的顾客投诉。
Weight-loss drugs will exacerbate the pressure. As the drugs gain acceptance, fewer people are likely to rely on exercise as their primary weight loss tool and the drugs’ side effects, nausea and intestinal distress, can make high-impact cardio activities uncomfortable.
减肥药物会加剧压力。随着这些药物被越来越多的人接受，依赖运动作为主要减肥手段的人可能会越来越少，而这些药物的副作用，如恶心和肠道不适，可能会使高强度的有氧运动变得不舒服。
However, GLP-1 users still need the gym. Studies suggest that the drugs cause significant muscle loss along with fat, leading to problems with balance and mobility as well as saggy skin sometimes dubbed “Ozempic butt”.
然而，GLP-1使用者仍然需要去健身房。研究表明，这些药物会导致肌肉和脂肪大量流失，从而引发平衡和行动能力问题，有时还会出现被称为“奥泽匹克臀部”的皮肤松弛现象。
Strength training seems to be the answer not just for GLP-1 users but everyone else. A growing body of medical literature suggests strength training cuts mortality, particularly for women, while also helping to prevent osteoporosis and relieving the symptoms of depression.
力量训练似乎不仅对GLP-1使用者有效，对所有人都是如此。越来越多的医学文献表明，力量训练可以降低死亡率，尤其是对女性而言，同时还有助于预防骨质疏松症和缓解抑郁症状。
“It’s gone from being health and fitness to health and wellness, which is a lot more holistic” says Eleanor Scott, a partner on PwC’s leisure strategy team.
普华永道(PwC)休闲战略团队的合伙人埃莉诺•斯科特表示：“健康和健身已经发展为更加全面的健康和福祉。”
Foot traffic to popular US gym chains Crunch Fitness and EoS Fitness is up by double-digits year on year, according to data provider Plaicer.ai. Planet Fitness has added 2.7mn members since the start of 2023 and improved its profit margins.
根据数据提供商Plaicer.ai的数据，美国知名健身连锁店Crunch Fitness和EoS Fitness的客流量同比增长了两位数。自2023年初以来，行星健身(Planet Fitness)已经增加了270万会员，并提高了利润率。
For all of them, the combination of strength training with prevention creates a chance to win, or win back, older customers still wary of gyms post-Covid. Although 80 per cent of baby boomers participate in fitness activities, just 42 per cent belong to a gym, compared to nearly three-quarters of active Gen Zers and millennials, according to ABC Fitness. But growth will not follow if newcomers end up fighting the regulars for access to the dumbbells.
对于所有这些人来说，力量训练与预防的结合创造了一个机会，可以赢得或重新赢回在新冠疫情后仍对健身房持谨慎态度的老年顾客。根据ABC Fitness的数据，尽管80%的婴儿潮一代参与健身活动，但只有42%的人是健身房会员，而在活跃的Z世代(Gen Zers)和千禧一代中，这一比例接近四分之三。但是，如果新来者最终与老会员争夺哑铃的使用权，健身房的增长就无法实现。