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It is a truism that US vice-presidential debates rarely affect the electoral outcome. After Tim Walz’s lacklustre showing against JD Vance on Tuesday night, Democrats will be praying that still holds.
美国副总统辩论很少影响选举结果是不争的事实。在周二晚上蒂姆•沃尔兹(Tim Walz)对阵JD•万斯(JD Vance)的平淡表现之后，民主党人将祈祷这一点仍然成立。
Political betting site Polymarket gave Walz a 70 per cent chance of winning at the start of the debate. By the end he was at just 33 per cent. It will be some consolation that the TV viewing numbers are likely to be far lower than the audience of almost 70mn that tuned into Kamala Harris’s encounter with Donald Trump last month.
政治博彩网站Polymarket在辩论开始时给予沃尔兹70%的胜算。到辩论结束时，他的胜算只剩下33%。对他来说，有些安慰的是，电视观众人数可能远低于上个月卡玛拉•哈里斯(Kamala Harris)与唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)对决时的近7000万观众。
Either way, the Vance-Walz debate was probably the last of the 2024 presidential campaign. Trump has shown no interest in agreeing to Harris’s call for a second encounter, understandable given how much blood she drew in their first.
无论如何，范斯-沃尔兹辩论可能是2024年总统竞选的最后一场。特朗普对哈里斯呼吁进行第二次对决没有表现出任何兴趣，考虑到她在第一次辩论中对特朗普取得了多大的胜利，这是可以理解的。
In terms of how America votes on November 5, Tuesday’s “veep debate” may not even rank as the second-most impactful event of the day. The first was Iran’s missile attack on Israel and the threat of a wider Middle Eastern war. If sustained, the jump in crude oil on Tuesday will feed into higher US fuel prices and hit consumer sentiment, which would harm Harris. Any impression of Middle East chaos is also likely to play into Trump’s hands.
就11月5日美国的投票方式而言，周二的“副总统辩论”甚至可能排不上当天第二大最具影响力的事件。首先是伊朗对以色列的导弹袭击和更广泛的中东(Middle Eastern)战争威胁。如果持续下去，周二原油价格的飙升将推高美国燃料价格，打击消费者情绪，这将对哈里斯不利。任何中东混乱的印象也可能对特朗普有利。
The second-most important event on Tuesday was arguably Trump pulling out of CBS’s widely watched 60 Minutes show next week and Harris confirming her participation. How she comes across in that interview, and the fact of Trump’s absence, is likely to have more sway than the Vance-Walz debate with the few million American voters who are still undecided.
周二第二重要的事件可以说是特朗普退出了下周CBS广受关注的60分钟节目，而哈里斯确认了她的参与。她在那次采访中的表现，以及特朗普缺席的事实，可能对仍未决定的几百万美国选民产生比万斯-沃尔兹辩论更大的影响力。
Nevertheless the vice-presidential encounter offered several pointers on the nature of this election. Three stood out.
尽管如此，这场副总统交锋还是为这次选举的性质提供了一些线索。其中三点尤为突出。
The first was Vance’s confidence and fluency. The Ohio senator also told some whopping lies. Of these, Vance’s claim that he had never supported a federal abortion ban and that Trump strengthened the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare”, were most egregious. Vance has consistently backed a national ban and other restrictions on women’s bodily autonomy. Trump tried to abolish the ACA multiple times.
首先是万斯的自信和流利。这位俄亥俄州参议员还撒了一些弥天大谎。其中，万斯声称自己从未支持过联邦堕胎禁令，并声称特朗普加强了被称为“奥巴马医改”的平价医疗法案(Affordable Care Act)，这些都是最为恶劣的谎言。万斯一贯支持全国性禁令和其他限制妇女身体自主权的措施。特朗普曾多次试图废除平价医疗法案。
Vance also conspicuously dodged questions about whether the 2020 election was stolen. His evasions may come back to haunt him. Overall though, Vance evidently took on board widespread advice to come across as more likeable. The debate was a mirror image of last month’s Trump-Harris encounter. Both vice-presidential candidates were civil throughout.
万斯还明显回避了关于2020年大选是否被窃取的问题。他的回避可能会让他后悔。不过，总的来说，万斯显然接受了广泛的建议，试图显得更为讨人喜欢。这场辩论是上个月特朗普与哈里斯交锋的镜像。两位副总统候选人在整个辩论过程中都表现得很文明。
Second, Walz was nervous and often faltering. The Harris-Walz campaign has taken some pride in avoiding mainstream media interviews and press conferences. Walz’s exposure has mostly been in soft settings with friendly journalists. Vance, by contrast, has been touring the Sunday morning shows almost every week. His slick evasions and polished whataboutisms betrayed many hours of practice on live TV.
其次，沃尔兹紧张而经常支吾其词。哈里斯-沃尔兹竞选团队以避免接受主流媒体采访和举行新闻发布会为荣。沃尔兹的曝光主要是在友好记者面前的轻松场合。相比之下，万斯几乎每周都在周日早间节目中巡回演出。他圆滑的回避和熟练的转移话题体现出他在现场直播上花费了许多时间的练习。
The Harris-Walz campaign may come to regret their preference for gentler surroundings. America’s relatively small but potentially decisive share of wavering voters repeatedly tell pollsters that they want more information about Harris’s policies. That Trump has supplied much less policy detail is striking. But nobody said politics was fair.
哈里斯-沃尔兹竞选团队可能会后悔他们更喜欢温和的环境。美国摇摆不定的选民中相对较小但可能具有决定性的一部分人一再告诉民意调查机构，他们想要更多关于哈里斯政策的信息。特朗普提供的政策细节少得多，这令人震惊。但没有人说政治是公平的。
Finally, Tuesday night offered a glimpse into one of America’s possible futures. Given the running mates’ respective age differences with their bosses, Vance’s performance was more significant. At 40, he is barely half Trump’s age. The prospect that a second term Trump would yield to a Vance administration before it ends is significantly higher than that of Harris giving way to Walz, who is several months older than her.
最后，周二晚上展示了美国可能的未来之一。考虑到竞选伙伴与他们的老板之间的年龄差异，万斯的表现更为重要。他只有40岁，几乎是特朗普年龄的一半。特朗普连任后，万斯接替他的可能性要远高于哈里斯让位给比她年长几个月的沃尔兹的可能性。
Vance conveyed Trumpism in its palatable form. He stood up for every tenet of Trumpism, including his refusal to accept that Biden won the 2020 election. But his mien was tempered and reasonable.
万斯以易于接受的方式传达了特朗普主义。他坚决支持特朗普主义的每一个原则，包括拒绝接受拜登赢得2020年选举的事实。但他的态度温和而理性。
Many Republicans last year invested great hope in Florida’s Ron DeSantis as the man who could uphold Trumpism without Trump. DeSantis turned out to be a dud in debates and on the hustings. Vance, on the other hand, has a future whatever happens next month. Liberals are right to fear Vance; he is a hardline Christian nationalist. After Tuesday night, however, they would be rash to dismiss him.
去年，许多共和党人对佛罗里达州的罗恩•德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)寄予厚望，认为他能够在没有特朗普的情况下坚持特朗普主义。然而，德桑蒂斯在辩论和竞选中表现平平。相比之下，无论下个月发生什么，万斯的前途依然光明。自由派对万斯的担忧是有道理的，因为他是一位强硬的基督教民族主义者。然而，经过周二晚上的表现，轻视他将是轻率的。