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Will.i.am, the Grammy-award winning rapper from the Black Eyed Peas group, has long mesmerised millennials with his music. This week, however, he grabbed the attention of economists, government ministers and corporate leaders with a different tune — a vision for artificial intelligence.
来自黑眼豆豆(Black Eyed Peas)的说唱歌手、格莱美奖得主威尔•艾姆长期以来以他的音乐吸引着千禧一代。然而，本周，他以一种不同的方式吸引了经济学家、政府部长和企业领导者的注意力——对人工智能的愿景。
As debates about AI dominated this year’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, will.i.am was among the loudest extolling the technology’s putative power.
在今年的达沃斯世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)上，关于人工智能的辩论占据了主导地位，威尔•艾姆是其中最为热衷于赞扬这项技术的人之一。
That is partly because it is sparking his own creativity (this week he launched the first music radio show with a bot). However, there is another reason too. He thinks AI could pull marginalised people into the mainstream economy in future years, and thus be a tool for social levelling. In particular, he told me — in a lively, expletive-laden speech on stage — he thinks AI will “break down barriers” for people “who have nothing”, in a near-unprecedented way.
这在一定程度上是因为它激发了他自己的创造力（本周他推出了与机器人合作的第一档音乐广播节目）。然而，还有另一个原因。他认为人工智能在未来几年可以将边缘化的人们拉入主流经济，并成为社会平等的工具。特别是，他在台上以生动、充满粗口的演讲告诉我，他认为人工智能将以一种前所未有的方式“打破障碍”，为那些“一无所有”的人们提供帮助。
Is this just another bit of Davos hype? Many might think so. It is true that in recent months a host of economists have predicted that AI will deliver a big boost to growth. Michael Spence, a Stanford university professor, for example, thinks it will add at least $4tn annually to global gross domestic product.
这是达沃斯的又一次炒作吗？许多人可能这么认为。的确，近几个月来，许多经济学家预测，人工智能将大幅提振经济增长。例如，斯坦福大学(Stanford university)教授迈克尔•斯宾塞(Michael Spence)认为，这将使全球国内生产总值(GDP)每年至少增加4万亿美元。
But this chatter about a putative productivity miracle usually occurs amid fears about rising social inequalities, due to the displacement of jobs. Indeed, at the start of this week’s WEF meeting, a survey from PwC revealed that a quarter of global chief executives expect generative AI to lead to headcount reductions of at least 5 per cent this year. Meanwhile, the IMF predicted that AI will change 40 per cent of all global jobs — and 60 per cent of those affected will be in developed countries.
但是关于潜在的生产力奇迹的闲聊通常发生在对工作岗位流失的担忧之中。事实上，在本周世界经济论坛会议开始之际，普华永道(PwC)的一项调查显示，全球四分之一的首席执行官预计，生成式人工智能将导致今年至少5%的员工数量减少。与此同时，国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测，人工智能将改变全球40%的工作岗位，其中60%受影响的将是发达国家。
More alarming still, there is a widening “digital divide” in terms of uneven levels of digital literacy and access to the technology across populations — and one that cannot be easily closed by education alone. No wonder that a poll from the Edelman public relations group shows that only 30 per cent of the global public want to embrace AI — while 35 per cent reject it.
更令人担忧的是，“数字鸿沟”正在不断扩大，这体现在数字素养和数字技术获取水平的不平衡上，而单靠教育是无法轻易弥合的。难怪爱德曼(Edelman)公关集团的一项民意调查显示，全球只有30%的公众希望接受人工智能，而35%的人拒绝接受人工智能。
However, there are two key factors that help explain the alternative, more optimistic view about inclusion, espoused by will.i.am and others. One concerns how AI might hit “head, hand, heart” jobs — to cite British author David Goodhart — or those deploying cognitive, manual and caring skills.
然而，有两个关键因素可以解释威尔•艾姆和其他人对包容性持更乐观态度的替代观点。其中一个关键因素是人工智能可能如何影响“头脑、手、心”工作，正如英国作家戴维•古德哈特(David Goodhart)所说，或者那些需要认知、体力和关怀技能的工作。
In the 20th century, digitisation primarily hit jobs done by “hand”. And the displacement of factory workers in the west by robots did fuel income polarisation, even if other jobs were created elsewhere, as economists such as David Autor have noted.
在20世纪，数字化主要冲击的是“手”的工作。正如戴维•奥托(David Autor)等经济学家所指出的那样，机器人取代了西方工厂工人的工作，这确实加剧了收入两极分化，即使其他地方也创造了其他工作岗位。
But the difference between AI today, and automation in the 20th century is that the new tech is hitting “head” jobs (and, to a lesser extent, “heart” roles), as Josephine Teo, Singapore’s digital minister, told a WEF meeting. That hurts the elite professions, arguably for the first time. Hence the squeals of alarm from pundits — which might leave some manual workers feeling some justified schadenfreude, observes Teo (herself a former union leader).
但是，人工智能与20世纪的自动化之间的区别在于，新技术正在影响“头脑”工作（以及在较小程度上影响“心”角色），正如新加坡数字部长杨莉明(Josephine Teo)在世界经济论坛的一次会议上所说。这对于精英职业来说是第一次受到冲击。因此专家们发出了警报声，而曾是一名工会领导人的杨莉明则表示，这可能会让一些体力劳动者感到一些幸灾乐祸(schadenfreude)。（"Schadenfreude" 是一个德语词汇，直译为“伤害喜悦”，用于形容一个人因为看到别人遭受不幸或失败而感到的快乐或满足感。这个词在英语中被广泛使用，用来描述这种在其他文化或语言中可能难以用一个词精确表达的情感。Schadenfreude 并不指正面的情感，而是一种复杂的、通常被认为是负面的情感体验，因为它涉及到对他人不幸的幸灾乐祸。）
The second factor is that history also shows that technological revolutions “undermine incumbents”, says Andrew McAfee, an economist at MIT business school. This is the case be they companies, countries or economic cohorts.
第二个因素是历史也表明，技术革命会“削弱现有的权威”，麻省理工学院商学院的经济学家安德鲁•迈克菲(Andrew McAfee)指出。这适用于公司、国家或经济群体。
That might seem hard to imagine today, since the elite who have developed and deployed AI have become fabulously wealthy. But if the acronym is presented in terms of “augmented” — rather than “artificial” — intelligence, it is possible to see why hierarchies might yet be challenged by a tool that enables workers to execute complex cognitive tasks far more easily than before.
这在今天可能很难想象，因为那些开发和应用人工智能的精英已经变得非常富有。但是，如果将AI的首字母缩写中的“A”解释为“增强”(augmented)而不是“人工”(artificial)，就可以看出为什么层级制度可能会被一种工具所挑战，这种工具使工人比以前更容易执行复杂的认知任务。
Consider the jobs of writing legal contracts, advanced computer code or medical diagnoses. Today, they are dominated by an educated elite. But if less-educated workers can deploy AI to perform these roles in the future, that will break some of the barriers to entry for “head” work. That is scary for the elite. Not so much for others.
想想写法律合同、编写高级计算机代码或医疗诊断之类的工作。今天，他们被受过良好教育的精英所控制。但如果受教育程度较低的工人能够在未来利用人工智能来完成这些角色，这将打破“脑力”工作的一些准入障碍。这对精英来说是可怕的。对其他人来说，就没那么可怕了。
Hence why some AI leaders, such as James Manyika of Alphabet, argue that this is already sparking a more positive attitude towards AI in the developing world than the developed one. And why social activists, including will.I.Am, hope that putting AI tools in the hands of more disadvantaged children will be empowering.
因此，一些人工智能领军人物，如Alphabet的詹姆斯•马尼卡(James Manyika)，认为这已经在发展中国家引发了比发达国家更积极的态度。而社会活动家，包括威尔•艾姆，希望将人工智能工具交到更多弱势儿童手中，以实现赋权。
The cynic in me would retort that there are endless obstacles that could torpedo this. Wealthy elites are often extremely good at finding ways to protect their privilege — and at building professional “moats”. And one grubby aspect of AI is that its development to date has hitherto been dominated by elites in the west.
持怀疑态度的人可能会反驳说，有无数的障碍可以破坏这一点。富有的精英们往往非常善于找到保护自己特权的方法，也非常善于建造职业“护城河”。人工智能的一个肮脏方面是，迄今为止，它的发展一直由西方精英主导。
This means there is an urgent need to get wider participation in the creation of the technology, says Alex Tsado of Alliance4ai, a lobby group promoting access in African countries. Without this, the tech will reinforce biases and hierarchies. Proactive, smart and holistic government policies must be developed to bolster education and IT access — and to ensure open-source AI development.
非洲国家推动开放获取的游说团体Alliance4ai的亚历克斯•查多(Alex Tsado)表示，这意味着迫切需要更广泛的参与来创建这项技术。如果没有这样做，技术将强化偏见和等级制度。必须制定积极、智能和全面的政府政策来支持教育和信息技术的获取，并确保开源人工智能的发展。
But here is the key point: if a rapper who grew up in a poor district in Los Angeles can dare to dream of a levelling upside for AI, other pundits should try do so as well — even amid the dystopian chatter. I just wish that the Black Eyed Peas would create a song that urges governments to deliver the policies to support this; it might finally grab attention from voters.
但问题的关键在于：如果一个在洛杉矶贫困地区长大的说唱歌手都敢于梦想人工智能的公平上升空间，其他学者也应该尝试这样做——即使在反乌托邦的议论中。我殷切希望黑眼豆豆乐队能创作一首歌曲，敦促各国政府出台相关政策来支持人工智能的发展，这或许能最终吸引选民的关注。